ترقبٌ حذر لقمة الزعيمين الروسي والأميريكي في ظل انسداد الأفق في العلاقات وتخوفاتِ الوصول لحرب باردة أو صدام عسكري يهدد العالم* لن يكون مسار التغيير سهلا والقيادة الأمريكية تحتاج لتطوير نهجٍ واقعيٍ تجاه روسيا خاصة السلاح النووي والاستقرار الاستراتيجي* يريد بايدن أن يثبت استعادةَ التضامن الاطلسي وان أوروبا وأمريكا معا مرة أخرى بما في ذلك المواجهة مع روسيا* بايدن يعفي شركة " السيل الشمالي" الروسية الاوروبية من العقوبات ليس إرضاء لبوتين إنما منعا لتعقيد العلاقات مع برلين* لن تغير القمة العلاقات بشكل جذري وعلى الأرجح لن تُرفع كافةُ العقوبات المفروضة على روسيا لكن ستُعقد الاتفاقات ويتم تحديد ُقواعدِ اللعبة .
لوريت أشقر ملكي – ارام ميديا أونلاين
هي السياسةُ, حيث لا مكانَ للحب المُطلق ولا للعداوة المطلقة!
فتيلُ الحرب الباردة لاح في الأفق, في الأشهر الأخيرة على اثر التوتر الشديد للعلاقات بين القطبين الكبيرين روسيا والولايات المتحدة, لكن ّ الأمور أخذت منحىً آخر وتهاتف الرئيسان ليضعا حدا لطبول الحرب التي أنذرت العالم بكارثة وشيكة, فاتفقا على ضرورة اللقاء القريب في قمةٍ ستجمعهما في ال- 16 من حزيران.
العالمُ أجمع يترقب قمةَ الرئيسين الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والاميريكي جوزيف بايدن, وفقا لما أعلنه الكرملين والبيت الأبيض قبل أيام.
وستشكّل القمةُ الأجتماعَ الشخصي الأول بين بوتين وبايدن منذ تنصيب الأخير كرئيس للولايات المتحدة , كما ستكون الزيارةَ الخارجية الأولى لبوتين منذ يناير 2020 عندما زار إسرائيل وفلسطين.
وعلى الرغم من عدم الإعلان الدقيق عن موقع انعقاد القمة إلا أن فندق الإنتركونتينينتال هو الأكثر ترجيحا لعقد الإجتماع بسبب قربه من قصر الأمم حيث المقر الأوروبي للأمم المتحدة, وفيه جرت المفاوضات الهامة لا سيما قمة عام 1985 بين الزعيمين السوفييتي ميخائيل غورباتشوف والأميريكي رونالد ريغين, كما اجتماع وزيري الخارجية السوفييتي أندريه جروميكو والأميريكي هنري كسنجر , ولقاء الرئيسين الأميريكي جيمي كارتر والسوري حافظ الأسد, كما ألقى خطابا هاما هناك مارتن لوثر كينغ في مؤتمر ” السلام والأرض”. وقد اصبح فندف الإنتركونتيننتال منصةً ديبلوماسية هامة خاصةً في العلاقات بين روسيا والولايات المتحدة عندما قدمت وزيرة الخارجية هيلاري كلينتون لنظيرها الروسي سيرغي لافروف ” الزر الأحمر ” , رمزاً لمرحلةٍ جديدة في الأجندة الثنائية.
توقعاتٌ وآمالٌ مُحدّدة يمكن تعليقُها على قمة بوتين بايدن المثيرة, لن تكون هناك حلول جذرية لقضايا الصراع الملتهبة لكن اللقاء يحمل في طياته رسائل إيجابية, فلقاء الرئيسين في ظل التوترات أفضل بكثير من عدم اللقاء. ستساعد القمة كما هو متوقع في التوصل لتفاهمات في قضايا عينية, وقد تشكل انطلاقةً جديدة في العلاقات رغم التناقضات التي اعتدنا عليها في سياسة الرئيس بايدن وإدارته , آخرها إعلانه عدم تجديد “معاهدة الأجواء المفتوحة” وذلك قبل أيام من انعقاد القمة.
ومع اقتراب القمة تحاول واشنطن تقوية موقفها التفاوضي والتخلي عن الرهانات التي لم تلعب بها بشكل واضح على الساحة الدولية.
طريقٌ مسدود في العلاقات بين روسيا والولايات المتحدة منذ ما يقرب من ثلاثة عقود
منذ عقود يعاني العالم من تداعيات التوتر المشحون وانسداد الأفق في العلاقات بين البلدين العظميين روسيا والولايات المتحدة. ولن يكون تغيير مسار هذه العلاقات سهلا, فصورة روسيا في الولايات المتحدة سلبية كما صورة امريكا في روسيا أكثر سوءا.
من جانب أخر تُعتبر روسيا بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة دولةَ بالغة الأهمية وتحتاج القيادةُ الأميريكية إلى تطوير نهج واقعي تجاهها, حتى لو لم يتم حل المشكلات القائمة, فالمهمة صعبة للغاية لأن كلا الجانبين متمسكٌ برؤيته ومسارِه الاستراتيجي ومن الاستحالة بمكان التخلي عنه.
الروس ينظرون إلى بلادهم كقوة عظمى تتحكم في مسارها, لا يقبلون “التفوق الأميريكي” ويسعون جاهدين للانتقال من عالم احادي القطب إلى عالم متعدد الأقطاب. يرفض الروس السياسات الأميريكية التي تحاول فرض ” الديموقراطيات” ويصفونها بأنها ذريعة لتغيير الأنظمة, إلى أنظمة اخرى موالية لأميريكا. (والأمثلة كثيرة على ذلك),كما يصر الروس على حقهم في التمتع بمجال نفوذ, وقمع ما يبدو أنه تدخل اميريكي.
في الولايات المتحدة هناك إجماع على أسبقية وتفوق بلادهم وأحقيتهم مقابل إنكار حقوق الدول الأخرى.ويتهمون روسيا في العديد من مشاكل العالم. ولتغيير هذا الموقف سيتعين على الأميريكيين إجراءُ بعض التغيير في علاقاتهم مع روسيا, بدءا بتحديد أولويات السياسة الخارجية للولايات المتحدة فيما يتعلق بروسيا خاصة البرنامج النووي والاستقرار الاستراتيجي. كما يترتب على أميريكا عدم التدخل بالهيكلية السياسية الداخلية الروسية, تعليق توسيع الناتو شرقا, وعدم جر جورجيا وأوكرانيا في محاولات الانضمام للحلف, كما مراجعة سياسة العقوبات ضد روسيا . هذه الإجراءات قد تعيد السياسة الأميريكية إلى الواقعية وضبط النفس ومنع المزيد من التدهور وخلق فرص للتعاون المشترك. ورغم انها ليست تغييرات جذرية لكنها واقعية وقابلة للتطبيق وقادرة على تذليل الصعوبات والاختلافات بين الولايات المتحدة وروسيا.
أكثر من ثلاثين عاما ومحاولات تطوير السياسات ما بين البلدين أخفقت دون جدوى, تطورت العلاقات بينهما على مر السنين وفق مبدأ ” الازدهار والكساد” المعهود. وكل إدارة أميريكية جديدة كانت توحي بعدم رضاها عن العلاقات القائمة وتتعهد بتحسينها تتم مراجعة السياسات لتحسين العلاقات وتطوير الشراكات لكن العقبات أبت إلا أن تظهر على طول الطريق. ووصلت إليوم إلى ما لم تشهده منذ أيام الحرب الباردة.
الولايات المتحدة تتخذ منهجَ تجاهل العوامل الأساسية كتاريخ روسيا وثقافتها وجغرافيتها واعتباراتها الأمنية حسب المنظور الروسي. كانت سياسات الأدارات الأميريكية لكافة الرؤساء على مدار الثلاثين عاما الماضية غير واقعية وساهمت في انهيار العلاقات بين البلدين, وهناك عاملا أساسيان يلعبان الدور الهام في هذا التوتر. الأول االرفض الأميريكي لقبول روسيا كما هي ومحاولة تغيير نظامها السياسي, قاوم الكرملين محاولات فرض ما يسمونه ” الديموقراطية” في روسيا والدول المجاورة, الأمر الذي اعتبرته روسيا تهديدا للاستقرار الداخلي. الأمر الثاني أن الناتو ينظر للولايات المتحدة على أنها المنظمة الشرعية الوحيدة المسؤولة عن الأمن في أوروبا وأوراسيا, ويقوم الناتو بتوسيع نظام الأمن الأوروبي الأطلسي ليشمل الفضاء الأوراسي , والذي يهدد أمن روسيا حسب ما يراه الروس.
هذا ولم تتوقف الولايات المتحدة عن محاولات التاثير في مجرى الأحداث في روسيا وقرارات الكرملين ,وتمت صياغة المصالح الأميريكية على نطاق واسع للغاية دون تقسيمها إلى مصالح رئيسية وثانوية ,وعندما احتجت موسكو على ذلك أصرت واشنطن على حقها وواجبها في توجيه روسيا وجيرانها في كيفية التعامل مع القضايا الداخلية, بدلا من الاستماع إلى اعتراضات الجانب الروسي , وهذا ما أشعل الوضع أكثر.
توتر وصل إلى شفير الحرب الباردة
العلاقات بين روسيا والولايات المتحدة ,شهدت مؤخرا توترا خطيراً وصل الى شفير الحرب الباردة. انحدر مستوى هذا التوتر لدرجة حيث لم يتردد بايدن بالرد بالأيجاب على سؤال أحد الصحفيين فيما إذا كان بوتين قاتلا. كما هدده بدفع الثمن ” لتدخله بالانتخابات الأميريكية” حسب قوله. تفاقمَ تدهور العلاقات على إثر ذلك واستدعت روسيا سفيرها في واشنطن للتشاور. وكانت إدارة بايدن فرضت عقوبات جديدة على روسيا بادعاء أن الأخيرة نشرت عشرات الألاف من الجنود على الحدود الأوكرانية, وقال بهذا السياق وزير خارجية الاتحاد الأوروبي جوزيف بوريل أن روسيا نشرت اكثر من مئة ألف جندي على الحدود مع أوكرانيا وفي شبه جزيرة القرم التي ضمتها روسيا عام 2014. وقال إنه اكبر تركيز عسكري لروسيا على الحدود مع أوكرانيا. لكنه أضاف في لقاء مع وزراء خارجية الاتحاد أن بروكسل لا تنوي في هذه المرحلة فرض عقوبات جديدة على روسيا أو طرد ديبلوماسيين.
أما البنتاغون فأشار إلى أنه من غير الواضح إن كانت هذه القوات فعلا لأهداف تدريبية كما أعلنت موسكو , كما أبدى الأميريكيون قلقهم من إمكانية أن تغلق روسيا البحر الأسود امام حركة السفن الأجنبية,
كما اوعزت وكالة الطيران الفيديرالية الأميريكية لشركات الطيران الأميريكية اتخاذ إجراءات الحذر خلال طيرانها مقابل الحدود الأوكرانية الروسية.
في ذات الوقت وجهت جمهورية التشيك الاتهام لروسيا بالمسؤولية عن تفجير مخزن أسلحة عام 2014, هذا ويتدخل الغرب بادعاء قلقهم على الوضع الصجي لقائد المعارضة المعتقل ألكسي نبالني.
الكرملين والبيت الأبيض يعلنان عن قمة الرئيسين
تهاتف الزعيمان بعد مرور شهر على حادثة وصف بوتين ” بالقاتل”
وبالنظر لاجتماعات وزيري الخارجية كما مممثلي مجلس الأمن في البلدين مؤخرا يمكن أن نشهد على نهج ” بناء” للبلدين, إن صح التعبير, خلافا لما شهدناه في الأشهر الماضية منذ تولي الرئيس بايدن منصبه, وتوتر العلاقات بشكل لم يسبق له مثيل منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية, حيث وصلت العلاقات غلى شفير الحرب الباردة.
فعشية أول اتصال للإدارة الأميريكية الجديدة مع روسيا , خلال محادثات وزير الخارجية سيرغي لافروف مع نظيره الأميريكي أنتوني بلينكين في ريكيافيك قبل ايام كانت هناك تسريبات حول عدم نية الأميريكيين فرض عقوبات جديدة على المشاركين الالمان في “نورد ستريم 2″ او ” السيل الشمالي 2″.
وجاءت التسريبات غير الرسمية لتثير عاصفة من السخط بين معارضي بايدن في الولايات المتحدة” كيف يمكن أن يكون ذلك, لقد وعدوا بمحاربة الروس والمتواطئين معهم دائما وفي كل مكان” كما قالو. موضحين ” يمكننا منع خطوط الأنابيب الخاصة بهم من البناء. واشار السناتور الجمهوري تيد كروز بهذا الخصوص ” إن إدارة بايدن الأكثر تأييدا لروسيا في العصر الحديث”! لكن الجمهوريين وغيرهم يدركون أن بايدن لا يريد فرض عقوبات جديدة ليس بهدف إرضاء بوتين ولكن لأنه لا يريد تعقيد العلاقات مع برلين.
وفاجأ بايدن بإعلانه عن إعفاء شركة ” السيل الشمالي 2″ الروسية الأوروبية من العقوبات معللا ذلك بان مشروع الغاز الذي تقوم به الشركة مُنجز تقريبا, مضيفا ” إن المضي قدما بفرض العقوبات غير بناء بالنسبة لعلاقاتنا مع أوروبا”.
وإن تساءلنا حول فائدة العقوبات التي تفرضها الولايات المتحدة على روسيا كان الجواب ” لا شيء” , فلطالما مارس الأميريكيون الضغوطات على جميع الروافع الممكنة لتعطيل ” السيل الشمالي2″ ومع ذلك كل ما تمكنو فعله هو تأخير البناء فحسب ولكن ليس إجبار الألمان على تغيير خططهم , وإن فرض بايدن عقوبات جديدة على روسيا لن تكون الخطوة مدعاة لمفجأة بوتين لكنها ستؤكد للالمان أن بايدن لا ينظر إلى مصالحها , وهذا بالضبط ما كان بوتين يتحدث عنه دائما . كما لن تغير العقوبات الجديدة موقف برلين, بل على العكس ستقوي موقف اولئك الداعين لعدم الانصياع للإملاءات الاميريكية.
مع العقوبات ستدفع واشنطن أنصارها ” الخضر” لإدانة التدخل الأميريكي خاصة ما قبل الانتخابات في ألمانيا, التي يدعم ثلثا السكان في هذا البلد علاقات طبيعية مع روسيا وعددُ أولئك الذين يرون تهديدا من الولايات المتحدة يفوق عددَ أولئك المتخوفين من روسيا. ولهذا السبب لا يريد بايدن تفاقم العلاقات مع ألمانيا في هذه الفترة بل على العكس يريد خلال رحلته إلى أوروبا في يونيو أن يثبت للجميع ( الأميريكيين والأوروبيين والروس) أن التضامن الأطلسي قد تمت استعادتهُ, وأن أميريكا وأوروبا معا مرة أخرى بما في ذلك المواجهة مع روسيا سواء في القضايا العالمية أو مواضيع هامة مثل أوكرانيا.
يحاول بايدن وإدارته على ما يبدو تصحيح الأخطاء وتقويم العلاقات مع الاتحاد الأوروبي , بالطبع ليس من أجل الاعتراف باستقلالية اوروبا’ بل لأنها تحتاج لاستعادة قوتها وطمأنة الأوروبيين, وإظهار التفهم والاحترام تجاههم, وقد عبّر عن ذلك مسؤول وزارة الخارجية الألمانية هايكو ماس , بقوله إن رفض الأميريكيين للعقوبات الجديدة لهو ” خطوة نحونا”, وتعبير أن ألمانيا شريك مهم للولايات المتحدة يُعتمد عليه في المستقبل.
يبدو أن خطة الأميريكيين الصريحة هي تسجيل الأوروربيين في أشكال جديدة من سياسة الإحتواء ليس فقط ضد روسيا أنما الصين أيضا, والقضاء على استياء الأوروبيين من أمريكا والتقليل من المشاعر المعادية تجاهها والبدء في تحالف الديموقراطيات ” لمواجهة “الأنظمة الاستبدادية” في موسكو وبكين كما يقولون.
واعتبر البعض أن أولوية بايدن لإصلاح العلاقات مع حلفائه الأوروبيين تقوم على استخدامه للتهديد الروسي لدول التحالف جسرا لتضييق الخلافات بين أمريكا وأوروبا.
أما التخلي عن العقوبات ضد ” السيل الشمالي2″ الذي لا تزال أمريكا غير قادرة على وقفه, فتُعد خطوة في صالحها. لكنهم لن يتوقفو عن محاولات التدخل مستقبلا, ومع تشكيل تحالف جديد للسيل الشمالي , ستكون لدى الأطلسيين قدرة للتأثير على النخبة الألمانية, سيحاولون التدخل في خط الانابيب الذي تم بناؤه مجددا بمساعدة بعض السياسيين الألمان,لكن سيكون هذا فصلا جديدا من التاريخ الألماني حيث سيتعين على الألمان الدفاع ليس فقط عن علاقاتهم مع روسيا ككل, بل عن سيادتهم وحتى سيادة أوروبا.
ما المُنتظر من قمة بوتين بايدن
لن يُغير هذا اللقاء العلاقات بشكل جذري بين البلدين, ففي هذه المرحلة لا نتوقع مثلا رفع العقوبات التي فرضتها الولايات المتحدة على روسيا . لكنّ الحديث يجري هنا عن اتفاقيات وتحديد قواعد اللعبة, وكيفية التعايش في عالم طرأت عليه تغيرات كثيرة في السنوات الأخيرة.
سيناقش الطرفان كما أعلن الكرملين آفاق تطوير العلاقات الروسية الأميريكية , وقضايا الاستقرار الاستراتيجي, كما مكافحة جائحة كورونا وتسوية النزاعات الإقليمية, كما أكد البيت الأبيض على هذه المعلومات وأفادت المتحدثة باسم الرئيس أن القادة سيناقشون النطاق الكامل للقضايا الملحة مشيرة إلى أن واشنطن تسعى لاستعادة القدرة على التنبؤ والاستقرار في العلاقات الروسية الأميريكية.
هناك حاجة ملحة لأيقاف التصعيد بين الجانبين خشية وصول العلاقة بينهما إلى مرحلة حرب باردة جديدة.أو صدام عسكري قد يدمر العالم. فالفرصة متاحة دائما لخطوات سياسية تركز على المصالح المشتركة, التي تحتاج فيها كل منهما إلى الأخرى, بضمنها قضايا الحد من انتشار التسلح النووي والدمار الشامل, وقضايا المناخ والإرهاب وإيجاد تسوية في سوريا كما في فلسطين.
ولم تُذكر أم القضايا” فلسطين” على لائحة المواضيع المطروحة للنقاش, فالقضايا الملتهبة بين الطرفين لا تعد ولا تُحصى بدءا بأوكرانيا ومعاهدة الحد من الأسلحة (نيو ستارت), والأمن السيبراني, و”حقوق الإنسان”, واتهامات ” التدخل في الانتخابات الأميريكية”, كما اتهامات التدخل بالشؤون الداخلية الروسية. إلى النزاع في سوريا وأمور أخرى. كلها قضايا بالغة الأهمية لكنها ليست أهم من قضية فلسطين وشعبها وشعوب المنطقة.
لكن كما اُعلن سيبقى المجال مفتوحا لطرح القضايا الملحة, وفي ظل احتدام الصراع الفلسطيني الإسرائيلي بالذات في الايام الأخيرة, وفي ظل معاناة الشعب الفلسطيني على مدار أكثر من سبعة قرون, يُطرح السؤال ” هل ستجد “قضيةُ القرن” قضيةُ فلسطين مكانا لها على أجندة قمة الرئيسين؟ وهل ستنجح الديبلوماسية الفلسطينية في أكير تحدٍ لها وهو إقحام قضيتها الكبرى وفرضها على أجندة زعيمي الدولتين العظميين ليقررا فعلا أنه آن الأوان لوضع الحد لنزيف وآلام الشعب الفلسطيني ومنح دول المنطقة الأمن والأمان والكرامة الإنسانية!
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