المجتمع الدولي

تزايد المنافسة ، بشكل رئيسي بين الولايات المتحدة والصين ، في ظل كورونا • اضطرابات في سلوك البلدان وفي الغرب على وجه الخصوص • طفرة في الصناعات الرقمية وتراجع في الطيران والسياحة والطاقة • توقع التنسيق عبر المحيط الأطلسي بعد تغيير الإدارة الأمريكية

توصيات للسياسة الأسرائيلية

نهج منسق مع الإدارة الأمريكية لاستئناف المفاوضات النووية • تطوير العلاقات الاقتصادية مع الصين بالتنسيق مع الولايات المتحدة • التنسيق مع روسيا في الساحة السورية • تحسين العلاقات مع أوروبا • تعزيز العلاقات مع الجاليات اليهودية. 

لنظام الدولي: التعافي من أزمات كورونا في ظل التنافس الدولي

العالم في نظرة شمولية

افتتح عام 2020 تحت تأثير ثلاثة عوامل تشكيل رئيسية في النظام الدولي: تكثيف المنافسة بين الولايات المتحدة والصين من أجل الهيمنة التكنولوجية والاقتصادية والاستراتيجية ؛ تفاقم الاستقطاب الدولي ، مما يجعل من الصعب حل التحديات المشتركة والقضايا الخلافية ؛ والاستعدادات للانتخابات في الولايات المتحدة. كل هذا طغى عليه تفشي وباء كورونا منذ بداية العام ، ما تسبب في أزمة صحية واقتصادية عالمية خطيرة ، آثارها شاملة ومتعددة الأبعاد.

في عام 2021 ، سيستمر العالم في العمل “في ظل وجود كورونا” ، الذي سيتسم بموجات متكررة من تفشي الطاعون والاختلافات بين الدول والمناطق في طبيعة التكيف والتعافي من تداعياته. بالطبع ، سيكون السعي وراء اللقاح الذي طال انتظاره هو المحور ، لكن من غير المرجح أن يؤدي إلى القضاء العالمي الفوري على الوباء في وقت مبكر من العام المقبل ، ولكن إلى انخفاض تدريجي ولا مركزي ، مصحوبًا بتفشي المرض. تتجه أنظار العالم إلى تغيير الحكومة في واشنطن ، على أمل أن تسعى إدارة بايدن إلى استعادة مكانة الولايات المتحدة كلاعب رئيسي على الساحة الدولية وفي الإطار متعدد الأطراف. ومع ذلك ، ستمر شهور عديدة قبل أن تنظم الحكومة الجديدة وتوضح سياستها وقدرتها على تنفيذها في ظل قيود سياسية صعبة وتحديات داخلية. على أي حال ، ستستمر المنافسة الاستراتيجية بين الولايات المتحدة والصين في تشكيل ديناميكيات النظام الدولي ، بل ومن المتوقع أن تتعمق.  

ستستمر المنافسة بين الولايات المتحدة والصين في تشكيل ديناميكيات النظام الدولي. ا

حتى الآن ، اتسمت الأزمة الاقتصادية العالمية بالاختلافات بين المناطق الجغرافية والصناعات. في دول شرق آسيا ، التي نجحت نسبيًا في السيطرة على الفيروس ، كان هناك نمو ضئيل في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي أو انكماش طفيف في عام 2020. هذا على عكس الدول الغربية ، التي تقلص ناتجها المحلي الإجمالي منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية. التوقعات المتفائلة للعام المقبل هي النمو الاقتصادي الذي سيمثل بداية التعافي من الأزمة العالمية. ومع ذلك ، من غير المتوقع أن تعود معظم الدول الغربية إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العام المقبل عشية الأزمة ، وستستغرق استعادة الضرر وقتًا طويلاً. ومن المرجح أن تتضرر البلدان الضعيفة والمتخلفة بدرجة أكبر وتتخلف كثيراً عن الركب من حيث معدل التعافي وعلاج أضرار الأزمة. كما ستستمر ممارسات المسافات الاجتماعية في مواكبة العالم في العام المقبل ، ومعها التدابير المالية والنقدية للتعامل مع أضرار الأزمة. تؤثر حالة عدم اليقين الصحي وصعود آسيا والصعوبات في الاقتصادات الغربية بشكل كبير على إسرائيل ، التي لا تزال دولها الغربية شركاء تجاريين ومصادر رئيسية لتدفق رأس المال.

عكس سلوك أسواق رأس المال العالمية في العام الماضي اتجاهين بارزين ، ينبغي أن يستمرا في عام 2021. الاتجاه الأول هو التأثير الانتقائي للأزمة: بينما عانت الشركات في العديد من المجالات – مثل السياحة والطيران والطاقة – من انخفاضات حادة ، أصبحت صناعة التكنولوجيا آمنة للمستثمر. الاتجاه الثاني هو التكيف السريع مع الاقتصاد الرقمي الجديد. تكيف العديد من ضحايا الموجة الأولى لكورونا في العالم مع أنماط العمل المتغيرة وتحويل أنشطتهم إلى بيئة رقمية. ومن المتوقع أن يستمر هذا الاتجاه ويمنح ميزة للدول والشركات التي ستتأقلم بشكل جيد وستكون قادرة على تصدير الخدمات والمعرفة التكنولوجية. بالنظر إلى المستقبل ، ستظل التكنولوجيا والابتكار بمثابة قاطرة الاقتصاد العالمي وستتطلب من البلدان والمنظمات والأفراد التغيير من أجل البقاء على صلة.

في خضم الأزمة العالمية وقرب نهاية ولاية الرئيس ترامب ، أصبح النظام الدولي مستقطبًا ومنقسمًا ويركز بشكل أساسي على المشاكل الداخلية لكل دولة وينتظر التوضيح ودخول الإدارة الجديدة إلى الولايات المتحدة. في العام الأول لإدارة بايدن ، سيتم استثمار معظم الاهتمام والموارد في محاولة “علاج أمريكا”: التعامل مع وباء كورونا والوضع الاقتصادي والاستقطاب الاجتماعي. ستركز السياسة الخارجية بشكل خاص على عودة الولايات المتحدة إلى اتفاقيات المناخ الدولية. الإدارة الجديدة ، على عكس سابقتها ، ستعود إلى أنماط العمل التقليدية التقليدية ، ومن المتوقع أن تستند سياستها بشأن مختلف القضايا إلى إجراءات منظمة لعمل الموظفين واتخاذ القرار. ستقود الإدارة تغييرًا في الاتجاه تجاه المجتمع الدولي: إعادة العلاقات مع الحلفاء في أوروبا وشرق آسيا ، وتعزيز الدور الأمريكي في الساحة العالمية ، وتجديد التعاون متعدد الأطراف. في الوقت نفسه ، ستعمل الولايات المتحدة على العودة إلى الاتفاقيات الدولية التي انسحبت منها إدارة ترامب ، وستجدد التعاون مع المؤسسات الدولية التي تم التخلي عنها خلال فترة وجودها.

في عام 2021 ، ستستمر المنافسة الاستراتيجية متعددة الأبعاد بين الصين والولايات المتحدة ، وكجزء منها ، ستكون هناك أيضًا عمليات “فصل” تكنولوجية متزايدة بين القوتين ، مع جهد متبادل لمنع المواجهة العسكرية بينهما. ستستمر الصين ، التي كانت في عجلة من أمرها للتعافي ، في التمتع بنمو اقتصادي سريع وزيادة نشاطها الاقتصادي واستثماراتها بشكل رئيسي في السوق المحلية والأسواق الناشئة ، ولكن سيتعين عليها أيضًا التعامل مع ردود الفعل المضادة المتزايدة على أنشطتها وتعزيزها. في جميع أنحاء العالم. إلى جانب إمكانية تعزيز التعاون بين القوى في القضايا العابرة للحدود ، ستستمر الفجوات العميقة في سياق القضايا الخلافية – الاقتصاد والتكنولوجيا ، والملكية الفكرية ، وحقوق الإنسان ، وتايوان ، والسيطرة النووية والأسلحة.

تواجه روسيا العديد من الصعوبات على الساحة المحلية ، كما أن مكانتها الدولية تتدهور في مواجهة انخفاض أسعار النفط ، وزعزعة الاستقرار في منطقة ما بعد الاتحاد السوفيتي (بيلاروسيا ، وقيرغيزستان ، ومولدوفا ، وجورجيا ، والحرب بين أذربيجان وأرمينيا) والفشل المتكرر في استعادة الحوار مع روسيا. الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي. كل ذلك يعمل على تسريع تقاربها مع الصين ، على الرغم من المخاطر والتوترات بينهما. ستواصل روسيا أنشطتها في الأطر الدولية ، وتسعى إلى خلق نفوذ من خلال الحرب السياسية ووسائل الوعي ، ومن المرجح أيضًا أن تسعى إلى توسيع وجودها وتأثيرها في الشرق الأوسط بقدر ما تستطيع.

أوروبا “تتنفس الصعداء” بانتخاب بايدن وتنتظر استعادة التحالف عبر الأطلسي ، بينما لا تزال تواجه الصدع بين الغربيين الليبراليين العالميين والقوى القومية الصاعدة بشكل رئيسي في وسط القارة ، مع تغييرات قيادية متوقعة بعد ألمانيا استقالة المستشارة أنجيلا ميركل ، الأزمات السياسية – الإيديولوجية والاقتصادية التي اشتدت في عهد كورونا – سياسات اللاجئين والهجرة ، مكافحة الإرهاب ، عملية خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي ، تجديد الناتو ، توتر العلاقات مع روسيا ، تشكيل موقف موحد تجاه الصين والعلاقة مع تركيا وشرق المتوسط.

ن الصعوبات التي تواجهها روسيا في القضايا الداخلية والخارجية تجعلها أقرب إلى الصين. الرئيس الروسي بوتين ونظيره الصيني شاي

الشرق الاوسط

على الرغم من رغبة الولايات المتحدة طويلة الأمد في الحد من مشاركتها في الشرق الأوسط ، وتركيز معظم اهتمامها الخارجي ومواردها على المناطق الأكثر أهمية لها ، ولا سيما شرق آسيا وغرب المحيط الهادئ ، إلا أن المنطقة لا تزال تحتل مركز الصدارة. تركيز النظام الدولي. ويرجع ذلك إلى التحديات التي تطرحها – انتشار الأسلحة غير التقليدية وعدم الاستقرار والانبعاثات والإرهاب ، فضلاً عن موارد الطاقة التي توفرها ، وخاصة في آسيا النامية. وعليه فمن المنتظر أن تعود القضية النووية الإيرانية إلى بؤرة النظام الدولي في المنطقة هذا العام إلى طهران. في الساحة الشمالية ، ستستمر روسيا في لعب دور رئيسي ، وعلى الرغم من القيود المتزايدة (بقيادة الاحتكاك المتزايد مع تركيا والمنافسة مع إيران لإعادة إعمار سوريا) ، فإنها ستحافظ على موقعها كعامل استقرار ومنظم.

ساحتا الصراع الرئيسيان في إسرائيل – لبنان وقطاع غزة – ليستا على رأس جدول الأعمال الدولي في هذه المرحلة ، خاصة فيما يتعلق بالاستيطان طويل الأمد ونزع السلاح ، لكن التصعيد العسكري قد يغير ذلك. ستحاول إدارة بايدن تعزيز زخم التطبيع بين إسرائيل ودول المنطقة – وهو أحد الإنجازات البارزة لإدارة ترامب – وأيضًا تضمين المحتوى في السياق الفلسطيني ، والذي تم دفعه إلى هامش أجندة ترامب وهو من المتوقع أن يعود. هذا بشكل أساسي في محاولة لتجديد الحوار بين الأطراف وتعزيز تدابير بناء الثقة (مثل إعادة المساعدة الاقتصادية للسلطة الفلسطينية ، وإعادة فتح سفارة منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية في واشنطن) ، وليس بالضرورة إطلاق عملية سياسية متجددة ، بالنظر إلى التدني. فرص النجاح.

بالنسبة للجاليات اليهودية في الشتات ، قد تؤدي الأزمة الاجتماعية والاقتصادية في الغرب والاستقطاب السياسي والتطرف إلى زيادة في الظواهر المعادية لإسرائيل ومعاداة السامية في مختلف أطيافها (أقصى اليمين ؛ ماركسي تقدمي ؛ إسلامي. -الجهادي) وتقويض الشعور بالأمن فيهم. من ناحية أخرى ، في التغلب على التحديات وعودة الحزب الديمقراطي (الذي يدعمه معظم اليهود الأمريكيين) إلى البيت الأبيض ، هناك إمكانية لزيادة التعاون بين إسرائيل ويهود الشتات. قد يؤدي التطبيع بين إسرائيل والدول العربية أيضًا إلى خلق إمكانية لتعزيز التعاون والتسامح الديني ويكون بمثابة ثقل موازن لتأثير القوى الإسلامية (تركيا وقطر والإخوان المسلمين) في المنطقة وحول العالم.

توصيات السياسة

في الختام ، على رأس جدول الأعمال العالمي في عام 2021 ، سيتم معالجة أزمة كورونا (الصحية والاقتصادية) ، في مواجهة تفشي الوباء المتكرر وتوقع التطعيم في وقت لاحق من هذا العام ، والانتعاش الاقتصادي بعد ذلك. في هذه المرحلة ، لدى شرق آسيا نقطة انطلاق أفضل للخروج من الأزمة مقارنة بالغرب. ومن المتوقع أن يزداد ضعف بلدان نصف الكرة الجنوبي ، التي كانت بنيتها التحتية الصحية والاقتصادية في المقام الأول أقل.

من المتوقع أن تستمر الديناميكيات الدولية في الاتسام بالاستقطاب والتشرذم ، وستكون الرغبة في حل التحديات العالمية في القنوات المتعددة الأطراف محدودة باهتمام القوى بالتحديات الداخلية (الصحة والاقتصاد والانقسامات الاجتماعية على وجه الخصوص) والأمريكيين – الصينيين. منافسة. من المتوقع أن يركز هذا بشكل أساسي على المنافسة على الهيمنة التكنولوجية والاقتصادية (البنية التحتية للاتصالات والذكاء الاصطناعي والبيانات الضخمة) ، وكذلك على التفوق العسكري ، وبالتالي من المتوقع أن تحافظ الصناعات كثيفة التكنولوجيا على مكانتها كقاطرة اقتصادية عالمية. ومع ذلك ، فإن التغيير في الموقف في واشنطن مع دخول بايدن إلى البيت الأبيض وإمكانية استعادة التحالف عبر الأطلسي قد يخلق مساحات للتعاون بين الغرب والصين في مختلف المجالات ، بما في ذلك الصحة والمناخ ، بالتوازي مع القضايا المثيرة للجدل. .

في غياب تصعيد قد يتطلب تدخلاً واستثمارًا للموارد ، من المتوقع أن يسير الشرق الأوسط في توتر بين نظامه العالمي ذي الأولوية المنخفضة وقدرته على لفت الانتباه من خلال الأزمات والتهديدات. الاتجاه طويل الأمد هو دفع المنطقة إلى هوامش المشاركة الدولية ، باستثناء القضية الإيرانية والجهود المبذولة لاستئناف المفاوضات بشأن الاتفاق النووي. إن فرص استئناف العملية السياسية بين إسرائيل والفلسطينيين ، والتي ستتطلب العديد من المدخلات السياسية ، لا تزال منخفضة ، والاهتمام الدولي بساحات الصراع الرئيسية في إسرائيل ضئيل للغاية ، ما لم تشتعل.

وهكذا ، يبدو أن العام المقبل يتميز بفجوة بين التوقعات الملحة والواقع الذي طال أمده ، مع إزالة العديد من الحواجز ، إن وجدت ، فقط في النصف الثاني من العام – استقرار النظام السياسي (ربما بعد الجولة التالية من انتخابات).

في ضوء الاتجاهات الموصوفة ، يوصى بإسرائيل:

  • للتحضير لإدارة أمريكية جديدة ذات رؤية مختلفة عن سابقتها ، والسعي لتنسيق السياسات مع إدارة بايدن ، واغتنام الفرص (الضغط على إيران وحزب الله ، التطبيع) ، لتقليل المخاطر وإشعال نقاط الخلاف المحتملة. التوترات في العلاقات بين الصين وإيران فلسطيني).
  • إعادة بناء العلاقات مع الحزب الديمقراطي والجالية اليهودية في الولايات المتحدة ، أيضًا وخاصة في مواجهة الجدل ، جنبًا إلى جنب مع الحفاظ على علاقات جيدة مع الحزب الجمهوري.
  • تكييف البنية التحتية والسياسات مع عصر المنافسة بين القوى والتغيرات في الاقتصاد العالمي: تعزيز المزايا النسبية لإسرائيل (التكنولوجيا والابتكار) ، والاستثمار في البنية التحتية اللازمة للحفاظ على هذه الفوائد (رأس المال البشري ، والبنية التحتية للاتصالات) ، وتنمية أعمال جذابة بيئة للاستثمار الأجنبي (شرق آسيا والخليج والغرب) وإنشاء “تحالف الابتكار” مع الولايات المتحدة.
  • إلى جانب تعزيز العلاقات الوثيقة مع الولايات المتحدة ، مع التركيز على التكنولوجيا ، وتوسيع حوارها الاستراتيجي حول القضايا الآسيوية ، تُنصح إسرائيل بمواصلة حوارها المستمر مع الصين ، والسعي إلى تعزيز التحسينات في سياساتها (مثل المؤسسات الدولية) في الداخل. القيود وتقوية العلاقات الاقتصادية مع الدول الآسيوية. يجب أن تتعلم إسرائيل من تجارب الدول الأخرى مع الصين ، وأن تصوغ سياسة توازن بين استغلال الفرص وإدارة المخاطر ، وتعميق معرفتها بالصين الحديثة.
  • إعادة بناء وتعزيز العلاقات مع الاتحاد الأوروبي والدول الغربية في القارة ، والاستعداد لليوم التالي لميركل. وذلك من خلال استمرار محاولة تجديد الحوار السياسي مع بروكسل ، وتسخير الدول الأوروبية ضد تهديدات إيران ومبعوثيها وتحديات تركيا ، وطرح الأفكار لمبادرات لدمج أوروبا في شرق البحر الأبيض المتوسط ، ودمج الحوار المتوسطي والخليجي داخل الناتو و دمج المدخلات الأوروبية في القضايا الفلسطينية ، إلى دول الخليج.
  • تكييف وتحسين آليات العمل الدبلوماسية الإسرائيلية تجاه المنتديات الدولية والأطر متعددة الأطراف ، والتي من المتوقع أن تلعب دورًا موسعًا في جدول الأعمال العالمي (المناخ ، الصحة ، الحد من التسلح والمزيد).
  • دمج قضية يهود الشتات في عمليات صنع القرار في إسرائيل ، بما في ذلك تشكيل هيئة طاقم عمل مناسبة وآليات للحوار والتشاور ، وتعريف العلاقات بين إسرائيل والشتات كمهمة وطنية تتمحور حول التعليم والاجتماعات والحوار ، إلى جانب مع تحديات مشتركة (هوية ، استمرارية ، تقارب لإسرائيل ومعاداة السامية).

_______

* ساعد في صياغة وكتابة التقييم من قبل الباحثين للبرامج البحثية للمجموعة الدولية في المعهد. شكر خاص لإلداد شافيت ، تسفي ماجن ، أوديد عيران ، شمعون شتاين ، إيال بروبر ، دانيال راكوف وغاليا لافي.

روتم أورج هو رئيس تحرير مدونة واشنطن إكسبريس ، التي تراجع وتحلل السياسة الأمريكية والسياسة الخارجية وتأثيرها على الشرق الأوسط وإسرائيل. زميل في معهد هانسن للقيادة (HLI) بجامعة سان دييغو ، ومساعد باحث سابق في معهد دراسات الأمن القومي.لتحميل

Assaf Orion و Shachar Eilam و Tomer Fadlon و Rotem Org – 6.1.2021

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