أزمة متواصلة قد تتحدى أسس الأمن القومي
بسبب وباء كورونا – تعميق الفجوات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية • إضعاف جهاز الدولة ومؤسساتها •
في التقرير السنوي لمعد الأمن القومي الاسرائيلي وبالتعاون مع جامعة تل أبيب, ركز تقييم الوضع على الساحة الداخلية في إسرائيل على الأزمة المشتركة التي تطورت في العالم وفي إسرائيل بسبب وباء كورونا. إنها أزمة ضخمة ، صحية ، اقتصادية ، اجتماعية ، حكومية وسياسية ، متواصلة.. وكما جائ في التقرير فأن تعدد مكونات الأزمة وعدم اليقين بشأن الوضع الحالي وما هو متوقع في المستقبل يعطل بشكل كبير روتين الحياة ويسرع الضرر المتبادل بين مكونات الأزمة. كل ذلك يضعف الصمود الوطني في إسرائيل بشكل كبير ويؤثر سلبًا على الأمن القومي. ومع ذلك ، فإن اللقاح الشامل يوحي بدرجة من التفاؤل بشأن الخروج من الأزمة.
هناك تشابه في خصائص الأزمة مجتمعة ونماذج التعامل معها مع تلك الموجودة في الدول الغربية. لكن مع ذلك في إسرائيل ، هناك مجالان متشابكان يزيدان من الضرر: الأزمة السياسية المستمرة من ناحية, ومركزية النظام العام الضعيف عموما والذي تم تضخيمه خلال الأزمة ، من ناحية أخرى. الأول يخلق شللًا منهجيًا وعوائق في عمليات صنع القرار ، مما يقوض ثقة الجمهور في الحكومة والضمان المتبادل بين المجموعات المختلفة في المجتمع الإسرائيلي. والمجال الثاني هو النظام العام المركزي ، مثل الصحة والتعليم والرعاية الاجتماعية وأنظمة الإنفاذ ، والتي تجد صعوبة في تقديم خدماتها للجمهور .
تثير الصورة التي تظهر بعد اكثر من عام من تفشي الوباء مسألة مدى خطورة الأزمة مجتمعة من حيث عواقبها طويلة المدى. لا توجد إجابات واضحة على هذا السؤال حتى الآن. وعدم اليقين يعقد من فهم عمق الظواهر المرصودة والقدرة على تقييم عواقبها.
من المتوقع أن تستمر عملية إعطاء اللقاحات للسكان لعدة أشهر ، لكن ليس من المؤكد أنها ستؤدي إلى القضاء النهائي على الوباء. حتى ذلك الحين ، فإن عدد الإغلاقات وكذلك الانتخابات الإضافية للكنيست – ستؤدي إلى تفاقم الوضع الاجتماعي والاقتصادي. ربما يكون هذا الحال في معظم شهور عام 2021. عندها فقط ستبدأ عملية تدريجية للتعافي والنمو من نقطة انطلاق ضعيفة لمكونات النظام الوطني.
السمة البارزة لعام 2021 ، في معظمها ، هي استمرار عدم اليقين بشأن الوباء وتوفر عدد كبير من السيناريوهات المحتملة التي تختلف اختلافًا جوهريًا عن بعضها البعض. لا توجد حتى الآن إجابات لعدد من الأسئلة الرئيسية ، ويمكن أن يكون لكل منها تأثير كبير على التطورات.
توقعات للعيش المديد في ظل كورونا والاستعداد لمخاطر أخرى
إن نجاحات تطوير اللقاح و توزيعه في إسرائيل وحول العالم , امر جيد, ومع ذلك ، حتى مع الافتراض المتفائل بمعدل التطعيم العالي , من المحتمل أن يتميّز النصف الأول على الأقل من عام 2021 بوضع مماثل لما سبق بما في ذلك إمكانية الانتشار السريع والواسع النطاق للجائحة , مما سيتطلب تدابير وقائية نشطة ، مع السعي لتفادي قسوة تدابير مثل الإغلاق العام .
ولكن حتى عندما يختفي الفيروس ، فإن عواقبه المعقدة ستكون حاضرة على مدى سنوات عديدة قادمة. يشير التقرير.
هناك دور أساسي للحكومة والمجتمع في خلق حالة من التأهب والاستعداد لاحتمالية العيش المديد في ظل الكورونا وحقبة ما بعد الوباء والقضاء عليه ، مع الاستعداد لمخاطر أخرى في المستقبل. (وفقا للتقرير).
المصدر: معهد الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي
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